Friday, June 27, 2003

Come On Down

The Daily Star reports that "Attacks against American and British troops in Iraq will increase and could encourage an influx of Arab volunteers to join the emerging resistance, analysts say. “I believe we are seeing the beginning of an Iraqi national resistance, which will spread out and escalate throughout Iraq,” said Mohammed Aziz Shukri, a professor of international law at Damascus University.

This is excellent news.

The selection of Iraq as a battleground between the United States and Arab terrorism is a fatal choice for the Islamists. A United States defeat in Iraq will be a setback, but an Arab defeat will be a catastrophe. Having lost on the conventional battlefield, the Islamists want to try consequences in the field of low-intensity warfare. They will fail utterly.

The pattern of combat operations in Iraq is this: the Islamists attack isolated vehicles or individuals. In contrast, the United States attacks the Islamist leadership structures and their cell structure. The American attack the Chiefs; the Arabs the Indians. And the Americans kill by the hundred. While the death of every American soldier is a tragedy, in the calculus of war, the Arabs must lose. By congregating in Iraq, the Islamists are unilaterally giving up their advantages of dispersion. The convoy system during the Battle of the Atlantic was designed to bring the U-boats to the destroyers. Now the Islamists are coming to the US Armed forces. Let them come.

As the US intelligence networks in Iraq improve with the acquisition of local informers, as more intelligence leads are prosecuted, the Islamist casualty rate will skyrocket beyond belief. The Islamists will lose the low-intensity fight in Iraq by a catastrophic margin.